Within Goose Bay Radar
Could a Weather Balloon Explain the Goose Bay Return?
A balloon remained plausible because surface winds did not reveal how air was moving at the target's unknown altitude.
On this page
- Why investigators considered a balloon
- Why the surface wind objection was weak
- What missing altitude and wind data prevent
Page outline Jump by section
Introduction
A weather balloon remains one of the more plausible conventional explanations for the Goose Bay radar return, but not because the surviving evidence points clearly to one. Instead, it remains plausible because the evidence needed to rule it in or out has not survived. The original investigation reportedly considered whether the radar target could have been a rawinsonde—a weather balloon carrying instruments for upper-air observations—but the case file ultimately left the incident unresolved. The key problem is that the investigators compared the reported movement with surface winds, while the balloon’s actual altitude was unknown. Without the upper-air wind profile from the relevant time, the surface wind alone cannot determine how a balloon would have drifted.[govweird]govweird.comgoose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird…
Within the wider Goose Bay radar mystery, this matters because it illustrates a common problem in early radar investigations. A conventional explanation cannot simply be accepted without supporting measurements, but neither can it be dismissed when the crucial meteorological data are missing. The result is a case that remains unresolved largely because of incomplete evidence rather than because a balloon explanation was disproved.[govweird]govweird.comgoose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird…
Why investigators considered a balloon
The radar contact was reported as a relatively slow-moving target, travelling at roughly 60 miles per hour over a period of just over four minutes. That is an important detail. Unlike reports involving extreme speeds or abrupt manoeuvres, this was the kind of motion that could reasonably prompt investigators to ask whether they were observing an ordinary object carried by atmospheric winds. The surviving file specifically notes that a weather balloon, described as a rawinsonde, was considered during the investigation.[govweird]govweird.comgoose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird…
A rawinsonde is more than just a balloon. It carries a radiosonde that measures pressure, temperature and humidity while its position is continuously tracked, allowing meteorologists to calculate wind speed and direction at different heights in the atmosphere. Because the balloon rises steadily through many layers of air, its path is determined by winds aloft rather than by conditions at ground level.[National Weather Service]weather.govNational Weather Service Radiosonde ObservationNational Weather Service Radiosonde Observation
For a radar operator in 1948, a weather balloon was therefore a reasonable working hypothesis whenever an unidentified, slowly moving radar return appeared without any corresponding aircraft report or visual confirmation.
Why the surface wind objection was weak
The strongest argument recorded against the balloon explanation was that the target appeared to move contrary to the reported surface wind, which was noted as westerly at roughly 5 to 10 miles per hour. On its face, that seems persuasive, but only if one assumes the object remained close to the ground. The case provides no reliable altitude estimate.[govweird]govweird.comgoose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird…
That missing altitude is crucial. Wind direction frequently changes with height, sometimes quite dramatically. A balloon ascending through the atmosphere may experience several different wind layers during a single flight. Modern rawinsonde observations exist precisely because forecasters cannot infer upper-air winds from surface observations alone.[National Weather Service]weather.govNational Weather Service Radiosonde ObservationNational Weather Service Radiosonde Observation
As a result, the statement that the object moved “against the wind” is incomplete. More accurately, it moved against the measured surface wind. Without knowing the target’s height, investigators could not know whether it was also moving against the wind at the altitude where it actually existed.
This distinction weakens both sides of the debate. It does not prove the target was a balloon, but it also prevents the surface wind from eliminating the balloon hypothesis.
What missing altitude and wind data prevent
The surviving records leave several important questions unanswered:
- There is no confirmed altitude for the radar target.
- The relevant upper-air wind observations have not survived with the case file.
- There is no documented launch record tying a particular rawinsonde to the radar observation.
- No reconstructed trajectory using measured winds at altitude can be performed from the surviving documentation.[govweird]govweird.comgoose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird…
Had those data existed, investigators might have compared the balloon’s expected drift with the reported radar track. If the paths matched, the case would have been considerably strengthened as a likely balloon detection. If they differed substantially, the balloon explanation could have been rejected with much greater confidence.
Instead, the evidence stops well short of either conclusion.
What this means for the Goose Bay case
The weather balloon hypothesis illustrates why the Goose Bay incident is best understood as a problem of incomplete measurement rather than extraordinary performance. The available records neither demonstrate that the radar tracked a rawinsonde nor show that such an explanation was impossible.
The later review already identified significant inconsistencies in the reported geometry and plotted track, making it difficult to reconstruct the object’s movement with confidence. Those measurement problems combine with the missing upper-air meteorological data to leave a substantial evidential gap.[govweird]govweird.comgoose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird…
For readers following the broader Goose Bay radar mystery, the practical conclusion is straightforward. A weather balloon remains a credible candidate because the only wind information preserved in the surviving file relates to conditions at the surface, while the winds that would actually have governed a balloon’s motion at its unknown altitude are absent. That missing information prevents either confirmation or rejection of the balloon theory, leaving it as a plausible but unproven conventional explanation rather than a debunked one.
Amazon book picks
Further Reading
Books and field guides related to Could a Weather Balloon Explain the Goose Bay Return?. Use these as the next step if you want deeper reading beyond the article.
The Report on Unidentified Flying Objects
Book Excerpt: ing can never be positively identified. It might have been a hallucination or it might have been some vehicle from outer sp...
The UFO Experience: A Scientific Inquiry
Cited by the New York Review of Books as "the best brief for visitation," this classic study presents an analysis of UFO reports and conc...
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • From the renowned astronomer and author of Cosmos comes a “powerful [and] stirring defense of informed ration...
Meteorology Today
METEOROLOGY TODAY has for many years been one of the most widely used and authoritative texts for the introductory meteorology course. Ea...
eBay marketplace picks
Marketplace Samples
Live-tested eBay searches with available results related to this page.
Selected fromaviation poster oneBay.co.uk.
Endnotes
1.
Source: govweird.com
Title: goose bay labrador october 1948 incident number illegible 28931625
Link:https://www.govweird.com/topics/ufo/project-blue-book/goose-bay-labrador-october-1948-incident-number-illegible-28931625
Source snippet
Project Blue Book: Goose Bay, Labrador, October 1948 - Incident Number: [ILLEGIBLE] · govweird...
Published: october 1948
2.
Source: weather.gov
Title: National Weather Service Radiosonde Observation
Link:https://www.weather.gov/upperair/factsheet
3.
Source: weather.gov
Link:https://www.weather.gov/rah/virtualtourballoon
4.
Source: govweird.com
Title: sante fe n m september 1948 incident number 175 28931552
Link:https://www.govweird.com/topics/ufo/project-blue-book/sante-fe-n-m-september-1948-incident-number-175-28931552
Published: september 1948
5.
Source: govweird.com
Title: edwards afb ca may 1957
Link:https://www.govweird.com/topics/ufo/project-blue-book/edwards-afb-ca-may-1957
Published: may 1957
6.
Source: weather.gov
Link:https://www.weather.gov/upperair/reqdahdr
7.
Source: bom.gov.au
Link:https://www.bom.gov.au/resources/learn-and-explore/radar-and-equipment-knowledge-centre/weather-balloons
Source snippet
Weather balloons | The Bureau of MeteorologyWEATHER BALLOONS Learn about weather balloons and radiosondes, and what to do if you find one...
Additional References
8.
Source: nicap.org
Title: Goose Bay Radar Case 1
Link:https://www.nicap.org/reports/goose.htm
Source snippet
Summer 1948Goose Bay Radar Case Summer of 1948 Goose Bay, Labrador Major Edwin A. Jerome, USAF (Ret.): "My only real contact with the UFO...
9.
Source: archives.gov
Title: Project BLUE BOOK
Link:https://www.archives.gov/research/military/air-force/ufos
Source snippet
Unidentified Flying Objects | National ArchivesJune 25, 2024 — PROJECT BLUE BOOK - UNIDENTIFIED FLYING OBJECTS GENERAL INFORMATION The Un...
Published: June 25, 2024
10.
Source: ncei.noaa.gov
Link:https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc%3AC00135
Source snippet
Air Weather ObservationNovember 5, 2018 — Dataset Overview | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) UPPER AIR WEATHER OBSE...
Published: November 5, 2018
11.
Source: nicap.org
Link:https://www.nicap.org/chronos/1948fullrep.htm
Source snippet
30, 1948; About 15 (25?) miles WNW of Grays Harbor/Pacific Beach, Washington (BBU) 4:20?-4:30 p.m. (PST). While flying in an F-82 fighter...
12.
Source: rainbow.ldeo.columbia.edu
Link:https://rainbow.ldeo.columbia.edu/data/NASAentries/nasa264.html
Source snippet
Rawinsonde/Radiosonde Time Series Data including GTS Observations,March 2, 1992 — WORLDWIDE RAWINSONDE/RADIOSONDE TIME SERIES DATA INCLUD...
Published: March 2, 1992
13.
Source: nsidc.org
Link:https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0054/versions/1
14.
Source: youtube.com
Title: What is a weather balloon?
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlQ2xcrhr8E
Source snippet
How to track & recover a NWS weather balloon & radiosonde Ham Radio DIY...
15.
Source: youtube.com
Title: How to track & recover a NWS weather balloon & radiosonde Ham Radio DIY
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2x-Jwu43Mg
Source snippet
Launching a weather balloon...
16.
Source: uforeleases.com
Title: 342 hs1 416511228 box186 319.1 flying discs 1949
Link:https://uforeleases.com/topics/army-air-force/342_hs1-416511228_box186_319.1-flying-discs-1949
17.
Source: youtube.com
Title: What’s Up With UAPs? with Neil de Grasse Tyson
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05w49hIZZNg
Source snippet
What is a weather balloon?...